Abu dhabi: Fuelled by exceptionally warm Pacific waters, the El Ni±o climate pattern is intensifying and has yet to peak. Forecasters are almost certain it will persist through February 2027 - with unusually warm conditions expected across much of the world in the coming months. El Ni±o is strengthening rapidly in the Pacific Ocean, raising the prospect of months of extreme heat, floods, drought, and disruptive weather around the globe.
According to Emirates News Agency, the phenomenon, already firmly established, is expected to become 'very strong' and peak around the end of the year, as per new forecasts from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). The likelihood that El Ni±o will persist through February 2027 is now close to 100 per cent. This marks the first time the UN weather agency has issued such an unequivocal forecast for El Ni±o or its cooler counterpart, La Ni±a.
Beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific lies another cause for concern. An enormous reservoir of unusually warm water could continue feeding El Ni±o in the months ahead. In some parts of the Pacific, subsurface temperatures in July and early August were more than eight degrees Celsius (around 14 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal. This combination points toward an unusually powerful climate event unfolding on a planet already significantly warmer because of greenhouse gas emissions.
UN Secretary-General Ant³nio Guterres emphasized the gravity of the situation in a press release, stating, 'El Ni±o is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up.' El Ni±o is a naturally occurring climate pattern that typically develops every two to seven years when waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become unusually warm, altering atmospheric circulation and shifting rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide.
However, this El Ni±o is developing against an unusual backdrop. The oceans are already exceptionally warm, providing a hotter baseline on which the natural climate cycle is playing out. While scientists have not established that man-made climate change is increasing or intensifying El Ni±o, a warmer atmosphere and ocean can amplify some of its consequences, increasing the heat and moisture available to fuel extreme weather.
The latest measurements underscore the rapid development of the current event. The Ni±o 3.4 index, a closely watched measure of ocean temperatures in the central tropical Pacific, averaged 1.5°C above normal from May through July. By July, it had reached 2°C, and weekly readings from late July through mid-August climbed as high as 2.6 degrees. The heat extends well below the surface, indicating that the warming is not fleeting and that El Ni±o has considerable fuel left.