Rome:World cereal production is projected to decrease from its record level in 2025 to its second-highest level on record, reaching 2,999 million tonnes in 2026, as per the latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief released by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO). This decline is expected across all major cereals, with wheat seeing the most significant reduction, and only a marginal decrease anticipated for coarse grains. Rice production is also set to decline for the first time in four seasons, dropping by 2.5% to 552 million tonnes due to poor producer margins and El Niño-related adverse weather conditions.

According to Emirates News Agency, global cereal utilization in 2026/27 is forecast to increase slightly by 0.2% to 2,971 million tonnes from 2025/26, with food consumption being the primary contributor to this rise. The use of wheat and rice for food is expected to grow by 0.8% and 1.0%, respectively, though this is slightly below the rate of global population growth.

Global cereal stocks are anticipated to grow by 17.2 million tonnes, or 1.8%, by the end of the 2027 season. This increase is mainly due to higher wheat inventories in the Russian Federation and Ukraine, where export disruptions are leading to a surplus. The global cereal stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 32.4%, which is slightly above the level of the previous season.

World cereal trade in 2026/27 is projected to decrease by 3.3%, to 507.7 million tonnes. The primary factor behind this contraction is an 8.6% drop in wheat trade, as shipments from all major exporters are expected to fall due to supply or logistical challenges.