Islamabad: Nearly five months after the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran, and the subsequent deal pausing it, the Strait of Hormuz-a critical chokepoint for roughly 20 percent of global energy supplies-once again remains effectively closed by a dual Iranian and US blockade, prolonging energy shortages and deepening fears of a global economic crisis. Before February 28 this year, the narrow waterway linking the Gulf to the Arabian Sea operated without restriction, allowing daily oil exports from Gulf producers to flow freely to international markets.
According to TRTworld.com, following the initial joint US-Israeli strikes that triggered a major regional war impacting nearly all GCC countries and beyond, Iran effectively shut the strait in response. Almost a month into the war, mediator Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja M. Asif publicly questioned the shifting aims of the warring parties, highlighting the apparent change in objectives to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the signing of a Pakistan-mediated Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) intended to end the fighting, the strait has not reopened to normal commercial shipping, and the US and Iran have resumed direct tit-for-tat strikes.
Iranian media reports indicate that US forces have targeted key infrastructure within Iran, including railways and airports, while Iran has retaliated with strikes in Gulf states, focusing on American military bases. Iran has suspended its commitments to the MoU, stating its need to defend against US attacks, which foreign policy analysts suggest was an inevitable outcome given the ambiguous goals within the MoU.
The 14-point Islamabad MoU aimed to cease hostilities, lift blockades, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while also addressing Iran's nuclear program and sanctions. However, disagreements over the interpretation of the MoU, particularly Clause 5, have led to renewed hostilities. Tehran sees the clause as granting control over the Strait, while the US views Iran's actions as a violation of the agreement.
Former US Ambassador Barbara A. Leaf described the situation as a "controlled military escalation," with Iran asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz, including Oman's waters. Prominent Middle East scholar Vali Nasr suggested Iran's actions are driven by a belief that the US never intended to honor the MoU, viewing it as a tactical pause rather than a genuine move towards a broader deal.
The conflict has expanded, with US strikes on Iranian military and civilian sites and Iranian attacks on US and allied installations in the region. Iran announced it is suspending its commitments under the Islamabad MoU, accusing the US of breaching its obligations.
Mediators like Pakistan and Qatar, who facilitated the initial agreement, face challenges in maintaining diplomatic channels amidst escalating tensions. The International Crisis Group warns that the MoU is on "life support," with both the US and Iran using military means to enforce their interpretations.
As tensions continue, analysts argue that both nations need to halt military actions to pave the way for new negotiations. The International Crisis Group's report emphasizes the need for an immediate standstill arrangement around the strait, urging Iran to cease attacks on commercial shipping and the US to suspend alternative transit route developments.
Ambassador Leaf cautions that a prolonged conflict could have significant economic repercussions globally, while Nasr notes Iran's strategy as a high-stakes gamble, potentially misjudging the global economy's tolerance for disruption.