Geneva: Global climate predictions indicate that temperatures will persist at or near record levels over the next five years, posing increased climate risks and affecting societies, economies, and sustainable development, as revealed in a new report by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
According to Emirates News Agency, the WMO report forecasts that the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is projected to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the average recorded from 1850 to 1900. The report highlights an 80 percent chance that at least one year in this period will surpass the warmest year on record, currently 2024, and an 86 percent chance of exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
The report also indicates a 70 percent probability that the five-year average warming from 2025 to 2029 will exceed 1.5°C, a significant increase from 47 percent in the previous year’s report for 2024-2028 and 32 percent for 2023-2027. With each incremental rise in temperature, adverse events such as heatwaves, extreme rainfall, droughts, ice sheet and glacier melting, ocean heating, and sea-level rise are expected to intensify.
Arctic regions are forecast to experience warming over the next five extended winters (November to March) at more than three and a half times the global average, with temperatures expected to rise by 2.4°C above the most recent 30-year baseline period (1991-2020). Additionally, predictions for sea ice in March 2025-2029 suggest further reductions in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk.
Precipitation patterns for May-September 2025-2029 are expected to show wetter than average conditions in regions such as the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia, while the Amazon faces drier conditions. The South Asian region, which has experienced wetter than average conditions in recent years, except 2023, is forecast to continue this trend through 2025-2029, though variations in individual seasons may occur.
WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett remarked, “We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems, and our planet.” Barrett emphasized the importance of continued climate monitoring and prediction, stating it is essential to equip decision-makers with science-based tools and information to facilitate adaptation.