Khartoum: Sudan's ongoing war is entrenched in a strategic stalemate, with both sides hoping for a breakthrough through new offensives, weapon deliveries, or political alliances, yet neither faction has managed to secure a decisive advantage. The real victims of this prolonged conflict are the Sudanese people, who face increasing hunger, displacement, and despair with each passing month.
According to BBC, the Sudanese Armed Forces announced their triumph with the recapture of central Khartoum in March, utilizing sophisticated long-range drones. The army has accused the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of supplying these drones, a claim the UAE denies, despite documented reports of its backing of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) throughout the 27-month conflict. The RSF has expanded its operations south of Khartoum, with commander Hemedti striking an alliance with Abdel Aziz al-Hilu of the Sudan People's Liberation Army-North, potentially opening new supply routes towards Ethiopia.
Concurrently, the RSF has besieged the capital of North Darfur, el-Fasher, defended by the Joint Forces, a coalition of Darfurian former rebels allied with the army. This siege has led to a famine among residents, with those in the Zamzam displaced camp suffering the most. The RSF, along with allied Arab militias, has been accused by human rights organizations of genocide against the Massalit people of West Darfur, with fears of reprisals against Zaghawa communities in el-Fasher should the Joint Forces fall.
The conflict has also seen the RSF capture desert garrisons on the Libyan border, reportedly with assistance from Libyan strongman Gen Khalifa Haftar. The Sudanese civilians, who once overthrew dictator Omar al-Bashir through non-violent protests, now find themselves divided, with various groups aligning with either Burhan or Hemedti, while others attempt neutrality. Civic activism is under threat, with both military factions cracking down on aid workers and human rights activists.
There is currently no credible peace process in place. The UN's diplomat for Sudan, former Algerian Prime Minister Ramtane Lamamra, devised a peace plan premised on an army victory, an assumption now deemed unrealistic. The UN has recognized the military as Sudan's government, giving Burhan a diplomatic edge. Hemedti's attempt to create a parallel administration has gained little traction.
Diplomatic efforts remain stalled, with a recent conference in London failing to chart a path to peace. Sudan's war is seen as an African issue needing an Arab solution, with diplomatic routes running through Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, and Cairo. Egypt's President, Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, supports Burhan but urges him to distance from Islamists linked to the former regime. The UAE's support for Hemedti remains a contentious issue, with its alignment with Israel further complicating matters.
Sudan risks a de facto partition amid ongoing humanitarian crises, with over half of its 45 million population displaced and nearly a million facing famine. Aid access is restricted by both factions, and the UN's appeal for essential aid remains severely underfunded. Globally, Sudan is sidelined, despite the potential influence of multilateral organizations like the United Nations and the African Union. These bodies could play a crucial role in advocating for human rights and humanitarian aid in a region that desperately needs intervention. The Sudanese people deserve a reprieve from their suffering and a path towards peace.