Rome: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a significant long-term threat to food security, livestock production, economic welfare, and human health, making it imperative to realign incentives in the global livestock sector before the costs of inaction become much harder to reverse, according to a new scenario-based economic assessment from the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO).

According to Emirates News Agency, under current trends driven by growing demand for animal source foods and continued production intensification, global antimicrobial use in livestock is projected to increase by nearly 30% by 2040 compared with 2019. This projection comes from "The Future of Antimicrobial Use in Livestock - The Economic Cost of Action or Inaction," presented Wednesday on the sidelines of the Fourth Session of the COAG Sub-Committee on Livestock at FAO headquarters in Rome.

The report highlights that while antimicrobial growth promoters (AGPs) are associated with short-term productivity gains, especially in resource-limited areas, the long-term production losses projected under rising AMR scenarios are much larger. In the scenarios assessed, cumulative livestock production losses under the high-AMR case could reach about $318 billion by 2040, compared with about $53 billion under the most severe AGP phase-out case.

By 2040, Asia and the Pacific are projected to remain the largest global users of livestock antimicrobials, accounting for nearly 65 percent of total use, followed by South America with around 19 percent. While Africa's share is lower, its growth rate is among the highest.