Amman: The UN issued an assessment warning that human development in Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan is set to fall back due to the ramifications of the Israeli war on Gaza, whose humanitarian system is “on the verge of collapse.”
According to a statement, should the war complete its current third month, initial estimates show that 230,000 additional people would fall into poverty in Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon by the end of 2023, as the cost of the war in terms of aggregated loss of GDP may amount to US$10.3 billion or 2.3 per cent for these three countries.
The rapid assessment published Wednesday entitled “Expected Socio-Economic Impacts of the Gaza Crisis on Neighbouring Countries in the Arab States Region” considers several potential regional spillover effects based on lessons learned from previous conflicts in the region, including the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the 2008-2009 war in Gaza and the crisis in Syria.
Such effects include changes in oil prices, influxes of refugees, pressure on public debt and fiscal
space, tourism and trade.
Authors of the assessment, published by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), estimate that if the war prolongs beyond three months, the socioeconomic impacts on several neighbouring countries “will intensify.”
The statement reads that the upper bound estimates predict that half a million people are expected to fall into poverty, and the aggregate total GDP loss would hit US$18 billion, 4 per cent for the three countries in 2024.
The Director of the Regional Bureau for Arab States at UNDP, Abdallah Dardari, said: “Firstly, there must be an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. This war is catastrophic for the Palestinian people. If it continues, its impact will potentially reverberate to neighbouring countries in the Arab States region.”
Dardari added, “We should not lose sight that the spillover effects from the war in Gaza in trade, tourism and livelihoods are exacerbating existing vulnerabilities an
d putting at risk the modest gains that these neighbouring countries have made to put their economies and societies back on track.”
For impact calculations, the authors play out two scenarios of the conflict assuming a three-month and six-month duration of the war, both at the current intensity and geographical scope, limited to Gaza and the occupied Palestinian territory.
They argue for urgent measures to build social and economic resilience in neighbouring impacted countries, noting that the priority must be for measures to end the war.
Source: Jordan News Agency