London: Global average temperatures are predicted to persist at or near record levels over the next five years, with Arctic temperature anomalies likely to remain above the global average, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), produced by the UK's Met Office.
According to Emirates News Agency, the Global Annual-to-Decadal Update examines the observed climate from the past five years and provides regional predictions for temperatures and precipitation for the upcoming five years. The report forecasts that annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026-2030 will range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average. There is an 86% likelihood that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record.
The report indicates a 91% chance that the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average for at least one year between 2026 and 2030. This threshold was also temporarily surpassed in 2024, with the global average surface temperature reaching approximately 1.55°C above the pre-industrial baseline.
Additionally, the report suggests a 75% probability that the five-year mean from 2026 to 2030 will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average. It is considered exceptionally unlikely, with less than a 1% chance, that any single year in the next five years will exceed 2°C above the 1850-1900 average.
Predictions for the central tropical Pacific (Ni±o 3.4 region) indicate a tendency towards El Ni±o conditions, particularly in 2027 and 2028. Dr. Leon Hermanson, the lead author of the report, noted that an El Ni±o is predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the likelihood of 2027 being a record-breaking year.
The report is produced by the UK's Met Office, serving as the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction. It synthesizes predictions from 13 different institutes, including four Global Producing Centres: Barcelona Supercomputer Centre, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Deutscher Wetterdienst, and the Met Office.
Confidence in forecasts of annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature is high, supported by hindcasts showing very high skill. The 1.5°C and 2.0°C levels specified in the Paris Agreement refer to long-term warming, typically assessed over 20 years. Temporary exceedances of these levels in individual years do not imply that the long-term temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are unattainable. As global temperatures continue to rise, temporary exceedances are expected to occur more frequently.